Warning signs and challenges for Ardern’s government

Despite Labour’s outstanding success in the 2020 election there are a number of warning signs for the re-elected Jacinda Ardern. Branding 2020 as the Covid Election has appeared a runaway success, but the real challenge is how Labour will brand the next government, and more importantly, whether the party will fulfil voter expectations.

Unfair as it is, having successfully delivered effective management of the health aspect of the Covid-19 crisis, political consumers will now do as they always do and ask “what’s next”? In particular, they will be asking how the new government will handle the slower-burn economic fallout from the pandemic.

Underneath the headline results are indications that the strength of support for Labour is not as strong as it appears. Firstly, the high Labour vote reflects extremely poor political marketing by a National Party which failed to accept the loss of 2017 or develop an alternative, political product, instead focusing on criticising one of the most popular prime ministers New Zealand has ever seen. Secondly, a Vote Compass question (Who do you trust more to manage the economy, Collins or Ardern?) completed by nearly 17,000 respondents showed only 40 percent trusted Ardern to manage the economy more than National leader Judith Collins. And 56 percent of undecided voters said neither Ardern nor Collins, or that they did not know.

More profoundly for the new government, there is a lack of connection between the Labour product and what voters want, because neither party nor public was clear about this in 2020. Labour failed to articulate a clear vision or top policy priorities in the campaign, and despite the amazing election result, does not have a clear mandate because they did not articulate one. Voters have bought an undefined product. In the last leaders’ debate, Ardern said people’s minds are on the future and they want to know where we go next. But she failed to then say where that would be, repeatedly saying “we are looking into that”.

Post-election, she said “our message was that the strength of that mandate was that we would be able to crack on with our recovery with greater pace and greater urgency and that’s our intention”. The problem is that message – and specifically what policies they would pursue to lead a recovery – were never clear. The phenomenal result does not therefore equal public support for specific action because they never said clearly what action they would take.

In many ways, you can understand Labour lacking a clear design because public views are contradictory. Reflecting on Vote Compass 2020 data from the whole campaign reveals there are unique and challenging trends in what the public thinks and what it wants from government going forward. For a start, the economy was the top voter concern so if only 40 percent of respondents trusted Ardern to manage this, it suggests a lack of belief in Labour’s ability to manage the biggest issue going forward.

Moreover, data across a range of policy issues suggests that the government needs to find a way to support people through welfare, but stimulate business at the same time, and in a way that doesn’t damage the environment. Policy action in those three areas – social welfare, economy and business and environment – often conflicts, so this won’t be easy.

For example, there is support for increasing tax on wealthier people (59 percent agree) and free dental care for those on low incomes (70 percent support action in this area). Yet there was a strong divide on other areas of social welfare such as increasing the minimum wage, providing free lunches to students in state schools: Fifty-two percent were for increasing the minimum wage but 39 percent were against. Similarly, 50 percent were for providing free school lunches but 31 percent were against. Alongside the economy being the top issues, the need to protect our environment is also strong, with 60 percent wanting the government to do more to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and 68 percent wanting investment in railways.

In other areas, the views of New Zealanders are not year clear. These areas include reform of the Resource Management Act, the ability of businesses to dismiss new employees, immigration, funding for charter schools, the Treaty of Waitangi and amends for injustices against Māori where a third were for, neutral and against.

For example while 34 percent support easing restrictions on on property developers and 39 percent are against, 24 percent are neutral. Get these on your side and that creates a majority. Same with the amount of immigrants people think New Zealand should admit – 37 percent think we should allow fewer immigrants, 19 percent more, but 41 percent think it should be the same as now, and they may be persuaded to change to less, or more. Opinions are also mixed on Māori issues with roughly a third being for, and a third against, the Treaty of Waitangi having a larger role in New Zealand. The remaining third think it should be the same as it is now. Where opinions are divided like this, a Prime Minister has room to take the country in a specific direction.

This is a very different task for Ardern than the one set in 2017. Instead of dancing adaptively around the different coalition partners, she has to show leadership and use political management and marketing effectively.

In political management terms, this means time must be spent deliberating to create a vision for the recovery, designing a plan, and investing political capital from this Labour landslide in discharging plans once decisions are made. In political marketing terms, it means careful use of market research to guide persuasive communication of potentially difficult decisions and policies to ensure tangible outcomes can actually be delivered. And all this must be done while managing the tension between two diverse markets: a victorious Labour movement wanting more transformational, progressive action and those who cautiously lent Labour their vote for the first time. Whether the Prime Minister and the new government has and can use these tools is what will determine their effectiveness.

Ultimately, the biggest message to come out of Vote Compass is that New Zealanders are crying out for leadership that shows care and concern but also action. Labour needs to respond to this by laying out post-election vision, economic recovery strategy, and policy priorities, and rally everyone around this. The dancer has now got the spotlight but leading the party and public on a march to success amid a global economic crisis is not going to be easy.