Seymour's 'fiscal heroes' need support not sarcasm

Deputy Prime Minister David Seymour described smokers as “fiscal heroes” who “probably save other citizens money” by dying earlier and collecting less superannuation. Seymour’s comments also reveal his worldview – more starkly, perhaps, than some of his other positions.

It exposed a long-standing tension in tobacco policy: though smoking is taxed to discourage it, the Government still draws revenue from the very people least able to quit and the least able to afford it.

According to the World Health Organisation, increasing tobacco taxes is one of the most effective ways to reduce smoking. New Zealand followed that advice – so much so that a pack of cigarettes now costs more than in almost any other country. A pack-a-day smoker can spend up to $12,000 a year. Drastic increases in excise over the past decade ended in 2023. It’s worth asking whether they ended up doing more harm than good – by further penalising the poorest New Zealanders.

Cost has undoubtedly played a role in helping people quit and contributed to the steady decline in smoking since 2011. That was the year the Government, in response to a Māori Affairs Select Committee inquiry, set the Smokefree 2025 goal – aiming for fewer than 5 percent of adults to still be smoking by 2025.

For many years, we were far off track. The decline in smoking was slow and uneven. But in the five years since 2019, smoking rates have almost halved – an unprecedented public health success. The decline has occurred across all age groups, among men and women, and particularly among Māori. It is now clear that Smokefree 2025 is within reach.

Much of the recent progress appears to be because of people switching from smoking to vaping; around 11 percent of adults now vape. In this case, the healthier choice is also the cheaper one. Along with noticeable improvements in their health, many vapers report saving thousands of dollars each year.

We’ve known for decades that people smoke for the nicotine but die from the smoke. The combustion or burning of tobacco causes the harm — cancer, cardiovascular disease, and respiratory illness. Nicotine, while dependence-forming, is not the killer.

Vapes aren’t risk-free, and they must be tightly regulated to protect users and prevent youth uptake. But for adults who already smoke, vaping offers a practical way out. This isn’t about promoting nicotine – it’s about meeting people where they are. But to reach Smokefree 2025, another 80,000 people still need to quit. And once we get there, we must ask: what about the remainder?

Roughly 200,000 New Zealanders will still smoke even when we reach 5 percent. They are more likely to be 45-64, Māori, low-income, and living with intersecting forms of disadvantage. These are people who have been left behind by previous policies – and they live in communities already under strain.

About 14,500 people each year use face-to-face stop-smoking services. These rely heavily on behavioural support and traditional nicotine replacement products such as patches and gum; the long-term success rate is low. In addition, a small number of people receive vaping kits as part of a trial programme. The challenge is to rapidly scale-up this programme nationwide.

To truly end smoking, we must offer all remaining smokers every chance to quit or switch – using the most effective, evidence-based strategies. Swap to Stop programmes in the UK and other incentives could complement traditional services and reduce inequities.

This is also a question of fairness. People who still smoke pay high excise taxes. It’s reasonable to ask whether they are being offered a viable way out.

That means targeted support, clear and accurate communication about risk, and making safer alternatives affordable and accessible. It also means countering the misinformation and confusion about nicotine and vaping – much of which undermines quit attempts.

Seymour’s comment, for all its bluntness, reflected a discomfort many feel but few articulate. Tobacco control has always been an equity issue. And as we near our target, we must make sure it becomes fairer – not harsher – for people who are still struggling.

Yes, it would be ideal if all population groups reached the 5 percent target by the end of the year. But that shouldn’t overshadow the extraordinary progress of Māori women, who – with support from peer-led initiatives such as the Vape-to-Save programme – have achieved the fastest smoking decline of any group. They are now projected to reach the target by 2030, instead of decades later.

This is not about undermining Smokefree 2025. Quite the opposite. It’s about finishing the job with integrity and compassion. We’ve made remarkable progress. When we do reach the Smokefree target, let’s ensure the final 5 percent aren’t stigmatised, forgotten, or treated as “fiscal heroes”. Let’s support them – with compassion, honesty, and the best tools and products available.