Why the story about our children failing at maths is misleading

New Zealanders have been told there is a problem with maths education and that it urgently needs fixing. We hear that results are declining and that “our children are failing” at maths.

Education Minister Erica Stanford has rapidly implemented and celebrated reforms: delivering workbooks to schools, rewriting the curriculum each year, and implementing small-scale interventions. Yet many teachers and maths education experts are concerned that these reforms neither address the real issues, nor are they realistic given the speed and quality of implementation. Many worry that the changes will even generate greater inequities.

How can these two views be so far apart? How can the sector warn about long-term harm, while the minister insists the changes are necessary and working?

Part of the answer lies in how the story is being told.

First let me point out that the evidence doesn’t clearly show an education system in crisis. There are challenges but the picture is more complex than the current public narrative suggests.

What we’re seeing is not just education policy, but politics.

Like all politicians, the minister needs to make a case for change and that case is built through a story. One that is simple, memorable, and persuasive.

The pattern is familiar, even formulaic.

1. Start with a sense of crisis

The OECD’s tests such as PISA and TIMSS, that are used to compare how well education systems are performing, have shown that New Zealand is just average compared with the OECD. Our PISA score has dropped, but in TIMSS we have remained stable.

But those rankings don’t tell the whole story. The decline in PISA over the Covid years aligns with the rest of the OECD. Where our maths performance really dropped was between 2009 and 2012. A current concern is the increasing gap between our highest and lowest performers. At the same time, areas where New Zealand does well get less attention. In 2022 the PISA test measured creative thinking for the first time and New Zealand’s average score was the fifth-highest of the 81 participating nations.

In short, the picture as framed by the coalition Government is more alarming than what the full evidence indicates.

2. Repeat the message

Once the idea of “declining results” is established, it is repeated often and confidently. Over time, it starts to feel like settled fact.

But national data tells a more consistent story. Curriculum Insights (the national programme that tracks how students are doing in school) show that achievement has been relatively stable.

That doesn’t mean everything is fine. We certainly have systemic inequality for various groups which must be addressed, but the ‘decline’ and ‘failing’ story is inaccurate.

3. Offer a simple solution

Education is complex, as is improving it. There are no quick fixes.

But good political stories need clear solutions. A “knowledge-rich” curriculum and standardised workbooks for maths are easy to explain and can be quickly rolled out, and speed seems to be the modus operandi of the coalition Government.

But on their own, curriculums do not change what happens in classrooms. Teaching development and classroom support matter just as much, if not more. And change takes time.

As I’ve argued on these pages before, maths education is not just about the acquisition of knowledge. We need our children to learn how to think, how to solve difficult problems, and how to be adaptable in a changing and uncertain world.

4. Fit the evidence to the story

Once a story is established, as the story about our apparent education crisis has been, new evidence tends to be interpreted through it.

Negative results confirm the problem. Positive or neutral results are taken as signs that the solution is working. In other words, we tend to see what we want to see.

We can see this in the minister’s response to recent Curriculum Insights findings. There isn’t evidence of statistically significant improvement, but the results are still being used as evidence that the reform is already working.

In this way, the story holds together, regardless of what the data shows.

5. Downplay the disagreement

Finally, opposition is sometimes linked to groups like unions or described as “ideological,” or coming from a “vocal minority.”

This can make opposition commentary easier to dismiss.

But when large numbers of teachers and experts speak up, as they have in open letters from maths education experts and other sector responses, it suggests something more significant is happening. There is real debate within the profession about these reforms.

Politicians from any part of the political spectrum use compelling stories to justify their policies. It is part of how politics works.

I’ve illustrated this political process with a maths education story yet there are many other education narratives circulating, including other curriculums, Te Tiriti, NCEA, and so on.

Education is complicated, and we should be wary of stories that suggest it is otherwise.

If we want to understand what will actually help our children, we need to look beyond the headline narrative. We must listen to teachers and other experts, who see every day what is or isn’t working, and what support is needed.

Education deserves this, and so do our children.