Trump tariffs make US even more of a rogue state

The United States is becoming an outlier in global politics. The frequently inconsistent policies and often bullying behaviour of the US President are undermining the foundations of the liberal international order, if not dismantling it. The actions of the US are more and more hazardous to global security, and what we might call a rogue state.

The term rogue state was first used in the 1970s for countries whose leaders brutally repressed their societies, such as Pol Pot in Cambodia and Idi Amin in Uganda. Over time, as UK Professor of International Security Alexandra Homolar notes, the label shifted “from condemning domestic policies … towards describing rogue states both as a major source of instability and uncertainty in the international system”.

In the mid-1990s, the term was extended by US National Security Adviser Anthony Lake to refer to “recalcitrant and outlaw states that not only choose to remain outside the family but also assault its basic values”. This definition was widened to countries that heavily restrict human rights, sponsor terrorism or seek weapons of mass destruction – North Korea, Cuba, Iran, Libya, and Iraq.

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Despite a drop in usage at the end of the 20th century, the term was resurrected after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. Singling out Iraq, Iran and North Korea in his January 2002 State of the Union Address as examples of rogue states, US President George W Bush said that they “constitute an axis of evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world”.

A term of self-reference

Despite the label commonly being used to describe opponents of the US, observers have long argued that the US could – in its own terms – be defined as a rogue state. In 2000, in his book Rogue State: A Guide to the World’s Only Superpower, William Blum outlined how US-led interventions around the world during and after the Cold War had undermined global peace. These interventions frequently involved human rights violations, assassination and torture, and the use of chemical and biological weapons.

In 2001, the respected US linguist and author Noam Chomsky described a rogue state as a “state that defies international laws and conventions … in fact, anything except the interests of its own leadership”. America’s subsequent illegal invasion of Iraq in 2003, and its use of rendition, torture and detention at Guantanamo Bay and Abu Ghraib, represented more evidence.

Apart from Washington’s ongoing refusal to recognise the International Criminal Court, during both Trump presidencies there have been concerted efforts to destabilise the US’s domestic and international political credibility. This includes the authoritarian debasement of human rights within its borders, the destruction of a range of international norms, and unsettling the US alliance system and rejecting the Western liberal international order. By expanding its nuclear arsenal, the US also potentially accelerates nuclear proliferation.

International pariah

All of these elements fulfil the key criteria of being a rogue state, but it is Trump’s escalating use of tariffs that marks the surest indicator of Washington’s threat to stability.

By applying ever-shifting levels of tariffs to virtually all countries in the world, Washington has lost its strategic negotiating value. The rest of the world is instead casting the US as an erratic, unreliable and coercive international actor, which in turn is making countries actively pivot away to more predictable, trusted and friendly trading partners.

In the context of the emergence of a multipolar world order, according to prominent US economist Richard D Wolff, Trump’s tariffs can also be seen as the latest sign of the “self-accelerating decline” of US hegemony and the US-led liberal international order.

This is especially the case when connected to China’s continued selling off of US Treasuries and the weakening value of the US dollar, which, according to Morgan Stanley, has dropped by 11 percent since January 2025 – the biggest decline in 50 years.

US tariffs are actively sabotaging the universal basis of the current international financial system – free trade. The continued use of such a policy will only further isolate the US, and represents a mounting hazard to the wider peace and security of the global system. Extortions to annex Canada, the Panama Canal and Greenland only augment this threat. On this basis, the US is the world’s indisputable and pre-eminent rogue actor.

How to respond?

In 1999, the US foreign policy expert Thomas H Henriksen showed how rogue states could be counteracted through “law, diplomacy and power”. As attacks on the existing order mount, the relevance and need for such counter punches will only increase. For countries across the world, whether US allies or not, Henriksen offers instructive means to deal with a disruptive US leader.

The first step is the already active boycotting of the US, especially economically. Such action may rapidly evolve into sanctions, as well as using coordinated diplomacy and international law to control the rippling consequences of Trump’s actions.

Recalling ambassadors and closing embassies would be further escalations, as would be “support for opposition movements” and any peaceful grass roots movements actively pushing for regime change.

Only the coming months and years will reveal if countries need to take these actions. However, the time to be thinking about a strategy is now, especially for small countries such as New Zealand, who have traditionally needed the US more than Washington has needed Wellington.