Japan’s return to nationalism

Last Saturday, Sanae Takaichi won the leadership election of the Japanese ruling Liberal Democratic Party and is expected to become the first female Prime Minister of the country. Her election has been described as the dawn of a new era, but in reality, this election was more about a return to nationalism, leaning towards the reframing of Japan’s imperial past to restore pride.

Takaichi was the protégé of the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and like him, known as a hardline conservative nationalist with hawkish diplomatic views, namely against China. Her closest challenger, Shinjiro Koizumi, is the son of ex-prime minister Junichiro Koizumi and who, like his father, is known as a staunch reformist.

Son of the reformist

Junichiro Koizumi became the prime minister in 2001, after winning the party leadership election quite sensationally, by beating the party’s prestigious elder. He was an adamant nationalist and controversially visited the Yasukuni Shrine, where World War II criminal leaders were enshrined together, multiple times in his tenure. These visits to the shrine impaired Japan’s relationship with East Asian countries, namely China, which had been victims of Japanese aggression. Still, he was much more recognised as a reformist.

Back then, the Japanese economy had been stagnating for nearly 10 years. Structural reforms were underway to rebuild the country, but the progress was slow. Hence, Koizumi made “Structural reforms without sanctuaries” (in other words, “without exceptions”) his political slogan. He made headlines as a disruptor of established interests. His reforms culminated in 2005, with a landslide win in the snap election in which he sought support to privatise the postal services.

Throughout the process, Junichiro Koizumi named the anti-reform Diet lawmakers, both in the opposition and in his own party, as “resisting forces”. He used populist “theatrical politics” to play up reformists as heroes who battle “enemies”, which helped snowball support for the reforms.

Koizumi was relatively popular throughout his tenure and reigned for more than five years. He promoted Shinzo Abe to critical positions both in the cabinet and the party, who became known as a kind of “prince” of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Abe succeeded Koizumi in 2006.

Protégé of the right-winger

Abe’s catchphrase was “Beautiful country, Japan”, and he pursued right-wing nationalist policies, such as incorporating patriotism in basic legislation for education by referring to “love of the country” as an educational objective.

This is a big deal in Japan because, during WWII, mobilising patriotism was the major driving force to sustain the war effort. He didn’t gain the public support as expected, and resigned in 2007 after a national election defeat.

But he was returned as the Prime Minister five years later, in 2012. This time, Abe’s slogan was “Take back Japan”, and was a proponent of audacious economic policy to rebuild the economy after the financial crisis.

He continued to push his characteristic hardline nationalistic policies, such as declaring that he would aim for amendments to the pacifist constitution for the first time since its enactment after the war. This time, his nationalist ideology was received well. When he left office in 2020, he has been the longest-sitting prime minister in Japanese history.

Moderates struggle

His successors were all more moderate than Abe, but struggled to retain his popularity. The LDP was also hit by a political financial scandal, on top of the prolonged economic decline, with rising cost of living.

Shigeru Ishiba, the third prime minister after Abe, conceded defeat in consecutive national elections, in the lower house last year and the upper house this year, and the ruling coalition lost control of both houses of the Diet. He declared his decision to resign in September, which made the LDP leader’s seat, traditionally held by the premier, contestable.

Five had run for the seat, but Shinjiro Koizumi (the son of ex-prime minister Junichiro Koizumi) and Sanae Takaichi (the protégé of the late prime minister Shinzo Abe) were the clear front-runners.

Therefore, this race was about choosing either reforms or nationalism, as both were the agenda of the ruling LDP, and hence the Japanese administration. However, both candidates shied away from their signature ideologies to gain wider support from the 295 party lawmakers, as well as around one million party public members who had stakes in the election.

Koizumi refrained from the slogan “Regulatory reforms without sanctuaries” that he raised in last year’s leadership election when he was beaten by Ishiba. Takaichi, likewise, downplayed her hardline conservatism, such as revising the constitution, and her only overtly nationalistic policy she referred to was strengthening rules on foreign entry into the country.

In the initial balloting, Koizumi won the most lawmakers’ votes but Takaichi won the public members’ votes. This made Takaichi finish first in the initial ballot but also added more votes from the lawmakers in the run-up against Koizumi. The lawmakers cited “public support” for Takaichi as justification even if they had different political views.

Alternatives needed

Koizumi’s failure to gain public support was partly due to his reluctance to position himself as a leader for reform, but 20 years on from his father’s era, “reforms” might not be an effective catchphrase anymore. Given that most of the so-called “resisting forces” have been eliminated by his father, conducting “theoretical politics” and posing himself as a heroic reformist has become difficult, if not impossible.

Moreover, the downside of reforms, such as uncertainty in the labour environment, has become prevalent throughout the post-reforms years and deepened societal anxiety. Hence, ironically, it would be even plausible to view that his father’s reforms contributed to the rise of support for Takaichi’s nationalism, corresponding to the social uneasiness.

As a veteran lawmaker and having had multiple senior posts during the conservative Abe administration, Takaichi’s political stance is well known. Her intention to take a tougher approach to foreigners may have helped her absorb the public support for the fringe anti-immigration party in this year’s upper house election.

Whether her reign will last long or not is unclear, given the current minority government of the LDP-led coalition. However, unless Japan finds an alternative formula to cope with the anxiety and unease rife in society, this return to nationalism might just last.