Has housing development improved access to popular schools?

In 2016, Auckland embarked on one of the most ambitious zoning reforms undertaken by a major city. The Auckland Unitary Plan (AUP) rezoned about three-quarters of the city’s residential land to allow more intensive development, including townhouses and apartments in many neighbourhoods previously dominated by detached houses.

Those of us who live and work in Auckland have noticed the changes to our urban landscape that followed: over the past decade, rows of new townhouses have gone up throughout the city. The economic ramifications have been substantial: research suggests that the reform led to the construction of more than 20,000 additional dwellings and a 23% reduction in rents (relative to non-reform counterfactuals).

What is less clear is how the AUP may affect broader social patterns: the availability of lower-cost housing options across the city may substantially expand where families can afford to live and, therefore, the neighbourhoods they can live in and the schools their children can attend.

New research that I am undertaking with co-authors at the University of Auckland will examine whether the AUP improved access to high-demand schools, particularly for lower-income families who might previously have been priced out.

Housing and schooling are tightly linked.

For most public New Zealand schools, enrolment schemes give priority to children who live within a school’s geographic zone. As a consequence, families looking to send their children to a popular school often need to secure a home nearby. In many such school zones, the housing stock has historically been mostly detached single-family houses, often priced beyond what many families can afford; public education is nominally free, but access to the most in-demand schools can entail a substantial cost via the housing market.

Zoning reforms, such as the AUP, potentially alter this arrangement by allowing for the development of more affordable housing types, such as townhouses or apartments, in high-demand areas.

A household that cannot afford a $2 million villa may still be able to rent or buy a smaller, new-build townhouse nearby. In aggregate, these changes may make access to some neighbourhoods, and consequently some schools, less exclusive than it would otherwise have been.

If zoning reform broadens access to effective schools, its consequences could extend well beyond the housing market.

Where children grow up, and the schools they attend, may shape the opportunities available to them later in life.

Children’s outcomes are strongly associated with the circumstances into which they are born. Previous research on intergenerational mobility in New Zealand has found that children raised in families in the top income quintile were about 2.6 times as likely to reach the top quintile at age 26 compared to children raised in the bottom quintile (31% versus 12%, respectively).

Of course, differences in school quality are not the only reason for persistence in income across generations: family resources, health, and social networks (to name only a few) all play a role. Still, a large body of international research suggests that children’s educational environments play an important role in shaping outcomes in adulthood.

Moreover, access to effective schools and high-quality teachers may be especially valuable for children from less affluent backgrounds.

Prior research conducted by members of our research team suggests that Auckland’s zoning reforms enabled some households to move from lower-income neighbourhoods to higher-income ones. This indicates that zoning can be redesigned in ways that support upward socio-geographic mobility: lower-income families may gain access to places that would otherwise have remained beyond their reach.

So far, the Auckland Unitary Plan has generally been evaluated in terms of dwelling construction, rents, and house prices. Those outcomes are important, but its most consequential effects may ultimately be measured not only in where new housing developments pop up, but in who is able to enjoy the amenities that accompany the most high-demand neighbourhoods.