Republicans following the money, warm to renewables

Until very recently, the energy world has been split into two camps, those in support of green electrification and those committed to climate-changing carbon fuels. The latter has been led by the US and its Trump Republicans. But an increasing number of key Republicans are changing camps, motivated by the exceptional rise of solar, wind and utility batteries as the cheapest source of energy on the planet.

This trend in political support is also apparent in the adoption of renewables to produce electricity in the US, where they are about to surpass gas for the first time. Furthermore, the pipeline of new power coming into the US in 2026 is overwhelmingly (93 percent) green, from solar, wind and utility batteries.

President Donald Trump’s recent attacks on renewables aren’t likely to have much impact globally; US carbon emissions peaked about 2005 and now constitute only about 11.69 percent of global total emissions. New Zealand emits only 0.17 percent of global carbon emissions but, on a per capita basis, we emit a similar quantity of greenhouse gases to the US, driven by the production of agricultural methane.

Renewable energy promise side-tracked by fast-track work
The US political system is not as negative about the switch from fossil fuels to electrification as its leader would like to convey. His attempts to expand fossil fuels and to weaken the drive towards renewables is starting to meet opposition from among members of his party. This includes a group of conservatives motivated by the fact that utility solar and wind, coupled with a grid battery, are now much cheaper than the cheapest of fossil fuels, and getting cheaper with time.

Since April this year, an increasing number of prominent Republican representatives and organisations have backed renewables. House Republicans have launched a push to reinstate clean energy tax credits (GOP Clean Energy Push); several Republican governors have inserted integrated renewables into state agendas to lower bills; the Conservative Coalition for Climate Solution (C3) offers support for solar and wind. Why wouldn’t they? Over 90 percent of new renewables projects are cheaper than fossil-fuel alternatives.

Readers may be surprised to learn Texas is leading the Republican-held states in renewables development, with 35 percent renewables and 70+ GW capacity. That is followed by: Iowa, 65 percent and 14 GW; Oklahoma, 45 percent and 12 GW; Kansas, 50 percent and 9 GW; South Dakota, 70 percent and 4 GW; North Dakota, 35 percent and 5 GW; Wyoming, 20 percent and 3GW; Arizona, 20 percent and 10 GW (solar) and Florida, 10 percent and 10GW.

New Zealand, with its 5.5 million people, is 82 percent renewable and with 11 GW capacity, so resembling Iowa (population of 3.2 million) or South Dakota (population 0.9 million).

Research has shown that factors influencing climate denialism in the US were party loyalty, alignment, and conformism. A survey reported in The Hill, showed that when Republican Party members were asked, if party leaders including Trump expressed concern about climate change, would this influence their own position, most said it would.

The political system in the US allows for states to go their way, rather than follow their presidential leader. Responsibility for US energy deployment and implementation lies with the states, while the federal government manages the national framework. Several Republican states are already committed to increasing renewables in the state grids.

An important renewables project led by the California Department of Transportation in partnership with University of California Los Angeles aims to integrate solar canopies over the roads which deliver energy to a roadside grid or to a local micro-grid. This renewable energy from the local grid powers the conductive rails incorporated in the roading and delivering inductive charging to electric trucks. Given that there are 78,400km of motorways in the US, once this technology matures it will likely have a major contribution to the national energy grid. The leading company in Electric Road Systems is ElectReon Wireless Ltd, which is active in the USA, Sweden, Israel and Germany. I would expect ERS technology will be taken up before long by many other countries including Australia, and hopefully New Zealand.

Republicans still don’t accept that climate change is real (or say they don’t) but do accept the growing gap between the cost of renewable and fossil fuels. And they recognise the reality that solar and wind energy is a gift from nature and does not require the costs of developing a coal mine: land purchase, complex heavy extraction equipment, the cost of establishing an open-cut or underground mine, the cost of removing and transporting the coal and the cost of insuring the overall mining process. Those costs do not include the health risks, the environmental impacts of extraction or the climate damage.

So, it’s unsurprising that the combination of solar, wind and utility grid batteries is now much cheaper than all fossil fuels. The global adoption of solar is three times faster than predicted by experts only a couple of years ago.

Solar and wind renewables are valuable, inexpensive energy technologies and not political ideologies. This realisation is finally sinking in among US conservative politicians.

The Republicans are, of course, following the money. While many Republicans still deny climate change as a concept, they are responding to the economics of clean power.

New Zealand politicians could take note. Progress may come not from political alignment but from practical economic incentives. Economics can reshape even the most entrenched political positions.