Is this the end of the golden weather?

For as long as most of us can remember, the enduring symbols of the Kiwi summer have been beaches, barbies and jandals.

But the impact of climate change means the peak holiday season is now more aligned with buckets, bailing out of campgrounds and generators.

In January, the deadly landslide at Mount Maunganui, which killed six holidaymakers, proved just how seriously we must all take that threat.

We won’t be changing the weather any time soon, so should we be altering our holiday habits instead?

Climate expert Dr Kevin Trenberth, an honorary academic in the University of Auckland’s physics department and a distinguished scholar at the National Center of Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, believes that might be a sensible move.

“Normal summer holidays are at the wrong time anyway. The most settled month is normally February, so by tying the holidays to Christmas, it limits the prospects.”

Kevin, who shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for his contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, says the El Niño and La Niña cycles are increasingly impacting our mid-summers.

It brings wetter weather in La Niña years, such as early 2023, but mostly drier weather in El Niño. The latter can even include droughts. (Drought and wildfire are major risks for our neighbours in Australia in El Niño conditions.)

During La Niña there is a greater risk of atmospheric rivers and heavy rainfalls. Recent examples include the Auckland Anniversary weekend floods and Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023. But in El Niño, the risk is of drier conditions and local drought in the North Island.

They’re not happening more often, Kevin says, but the consequences are greater. 

Currently, a major El Niño event is looming and expected to peak over the coming summer, bringing the likelihood of wetter weather in the south and west, and drier in the north and east.

In addition, over the past ten to 15 years, climate change has made the so-called atmospheric rivers coming from the tropics more powerful, penetrating further into New Zealand, causing heavier and more extensive rain, flooding and erosion.

The best we can do is plan for heavy rains and flooding. “On your own property, make sure you’ve got good drainage systems and if you’re living in a coastal region, then you might want to move. But the main thing is to try to build resilience for these effects and then maybe you can even take advantage of them – you can save the water for a dry period.”

While he believes some school holiday dates are chosen “rather weirdly”, the idea of shifting them comes with “a few buts”.

“If you’re a relatively young kid, maybe you want to go to the beach and enjoy the sunshine, but if you’re older, maybe not. As you get older, you probably want to avoid the extremes at both ends.”

Cultural historian Richard Wolfe, a University of Auckland Bachelor of Fine Arts alumnus, agrees. Richard has written extensively on New Zealand’s cultural identity and in 1993 co-authored At the Beach – the Great New Zealand Holiday with Stephen Barnett.

At the Beach documented the adaptation of the British love of the seaside to New Zealand conditions, taking in such local features as volcanic black sand, lilos, togs and the humble bach.

His latest book, The Passing of the Forest, is a visual history of the devastations humans have wrought on native forests, one of the natural protectors against the effects of climate change.

Richard grew up in New Plymouth and says the beaches fringing the Taranaki Bight were a major summer attraction.

“Those of us who grew up in the ’50s and ’60s spent our summer holidays lying on the sandhills, cooling off in the Tasman, along with TT2s and ice creams that cost four pence. It may be selective memory, but Christmas summer holidays back then seemed interminably long, and the sun was invariably shining.”

Increasing awareness of the risk of melanoma has changed some of that. “I don’t think any of our generation sit around in the sun like we used to for several reasons, one of which is the sun seems to be fiercer than ever.”

He says climate change also represents a threat to the traditional Kiwi bach, the down-home versions of which are slowly being replaced by models worthy of Grand Designs.

Ironically, Richard and his wife Pamela, a renowned artist and illustrator, have missed all but one of the last 30-odd Kiwi summers, opting to spend the time with their UK-based daughter. But he’s not in favour of shifting our traditional holiday period to February or March.

“I suspect there can be no guarantee that the weather in February would be better, and therefore more suitable for the nation’s summer holiday. I fear that if we, and the world at large, continue to drill and burn fossil fuels, we ain’t seen nothing yet.” 

Shifting the long school summer holiday into February, when the weather is – currently – often more settled, has been a bubbling debate for years. While it would mean kids might get more ‘summer’ in their summer holiday, some in the debate also argue that, as temperatures rise, it would offer students and teachers respite from the stuffiest month in the classroom.

The same logic applies to workers, of course, but doubly so for parents with school-aged children, who need to provide supervision when kids are not in school. But what are the options if we work for a business that has a summer shutdown?

What’s likely to happen now, says Dr Deepika Jindal, a professional teaching fellow in management and international business at the University, is what she calls “leave crafting”. This is how employees can proactively shape when and how they take leave to support their well-being, life-role and career outcomes. It’s the same logic that applies to the established concept of job-crafting – Deepika’s research area – in which employees can adjust their tasks and relationships at work to better meet their needs.

Deepika says leave-crafting in response to summer weather might include employers offering a shorter compulsory closedown, with the rest of the period converted to flexible leave that employees can bank and take when they choose. Other options could be staggered shutdown windows so not every employee is locked into the same period, and for employers to ask what they want from their break, rather than making assumptions based on traditions.

It isn’t a one-size-fits-all solution, though, with larger organisations more able to offer such flexibility.

“What’s changing isn’t simply the weather – it’s the value proposition of leave,” says Deepika. “If a summer break no longer reliably delivers the experiences people associate with it, employees may place greater value on being able to choose when they use their leave. In that sense, climate variability may increase demand for flexibility rather than necessarily increasing demand for more leave.” 

It’s part of an economic conundrum that tourism businesses are already grappling with, says postdoctoral research fellow Dr Claire Beach, from the University’s Business School. Her PhD research focused on how tourism firms become more sustainable and are now developing “nature-positive tourism”.

She says the changing weather patterns make it harder for both firms and consumers to plan their trips. “People who might reliably go to a specific campground or do a specific activity at a certain time of the year have to rethink.”

Claire’s research in 2024 collected data from 13 tourism firms (seven tour operators and six accommodation providers) that indicated tour operators – such as ski-field businesses and those running chartered excursions, such as whale and dolphin-watching – were more impacted by the changing weather patterns than accommodation providers.

Cyclones that wash trees and debris into the water constitute another hazard in summer, while changing water temperatures mean whales and dolphins are staying further from shore because it’s now as warm there as it used to be closer in. That means trips to see them will take longer, reducing the number of daily trips operators can run.

Choppier weather patterns also mean choppier seas, which can force trips to be cancelled for safety reasons. Another downside is that choppier seas can make the customer experience far less enjoyable.

She says marine tourism firms are being forced to change their thinking about the products they offer.

“Usually, they’ll just sell a ticket and go out two or three times a day; now they’re thinking, ‘Well, we have this boat that’s sitting empty all the other hours of the day – what can we do with it?’ So, private charters are becoming more of a thing.”

These charters would be scheduled at times the business usually did not operate. Likewise, ski-field operators without snow at the opening of the season might switch to offering hiking or mountain biking.

Of course, climate change affects more than our physical environment – it also impacts our mental well-being, says Faculty of Science research fellow Dr Phillipa Pehi. Phillipa is a member of the New Zealand Psychological Society’s Climate Psychology Taskforce and for the past two years has been the society’s director of environmental issues. It’s a position that was created in response to the increasing need for psychological help for ‘environmental distress’ because of climate change. This mental distress includes anxiety, PTSD, depression, rage and hopelessness.

Work is under way to develop therapies to specifically address climate distress, which affects people both directly and indirectly. “We are seeing more people, particularly youth, experiencing distress at what they see happening in our world.”

In September, Phillipa set off from Kapowairua (Spirits Bay in the Far North), on a planned six-month hīkoi to traverse the length of New Zealand – a walk she has completed four times since 2013. She wants to find and share inspiring stories of hope and resilience within communities and the environment. 

However, she believes most of us are denied our connection with nature due to factors such as busy lifestyles, lack of resources and restricted access.

“When I was young, I was happiest when I was in nature by myself or camping outdoors with whānau because nature’s so loving and accepting. You don’t have to look a certain way or be a certain way or mind what you say or quieten down or behave.

“One of the main reasons that propels me to keep doing this work is that I am filled with such sadness that my mokopuna may not get to experience the same thing if we don’t manage as humanity to change our mentality towards nature.”