A modelling tool to improve the policy response on issues concerning children and young people
Timeframe
2007–2012
Funder
Foundation for Research, Science, and Technology
COMPASS staff
Peter Davis (Principal Investigator), Roy Lay-Yee, Janet Pearson, Oliver Mannion, Barry Milne, Karl Parker, Martin von Randow, Jessica McLay
Collaborators
University of Auckland: Tracey McIntosh, Louise Humpage
International Advisory Group
- Professor Nigel Gilbert – University of Surrey
- Professor Laurie Brown – National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling
- Professor Klaus Troitzsch (retired) – University of Koblenz-Landau
- Martin Spielauer – Statistics Canada
- Dr Flaminio Squazzoni – Brescia University
- Dr Dimitris Ballas – University of Sheffield
Description
The aim of this project was to construct a computer-based simulation model as a decision-support tool for policymaking. This entailed building a model with microdata from existing longitudinal studies, to quantify, for policy purposes, the underlying drivers and determinants of progress in the early life-course.
The microsimulation model was released in a package we called JAMSIM (JAva MicroSIMulation), developed by our computer programmer, Oliver Mannion, an application for the execution, manipulation, and interrogation of microsimulation models by non-technical policy-orientated users. JAMSIM combined R to run the statistical models, and an agent-based modelling graphical tool using Java, Ascape. The basic source code of JAMSIM is now available through Github.
Presentations
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Modelling the early life-course: A decision support tool for policy makers. Size: 742.1 kB.
Document Description: Barry Milne
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Developing a simulation tool for policymakers. Size: 979.5 kB.
Document Description: Barry Milne
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Simario - R for dynamic microsimulation. Size: 844.4 kB.
Document Description: Jessica McLay
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Creating synthetic data using composites of similar individuals. Size: 453.8 kB.
Document Description: Barry Milne
Publications
Milne B, Lay-Yee R, McLay J, Pearson J, von Randow M, Davis P (2015). Modelling the Early Life-Course (MELC): A microsimulation model of child development in New Zealand. International Journal of Microsimulation 8(2), 28–60. Online appendix.
McLay J, Lay-Yee R, Milne B, Davis P (2015). Regression-style models for parameter estimation in dynamic microsimulation: An empirical performance assessment. International Journal of Microsimulation 8(2), 83–127. Online appendix.
Lay-Yee R, Milne B, Davis P, Pearson J, McLay J (2015). Determinants and disparities:
A simulation approach to the case of child health care. Social Science and Medicine
128: 202–211. doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2015.01.025.
Milne B, Lay-Yee R, Thomas J, Tobias M, Tuohy P, Armstrong A, Lynn R, Davis P, Pearson J, Mannion O (2014). A collaborative approach to bridging the research-policy gap through the development of policy advice software. Evidence & Policy 10(1), 127–136.
Mannion O, Lay-Yee R, Wrapson W, Davis P, Pearson J (2012). JAMSIM: a Microsimulation Modelling Policy Tool. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 15(1) 8.
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The role of microsimulation in the development of public policy. Size: 446.7 kB.
Document Description: Roy Lay-Yee and Gerry Cotterell
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Predicting our children’s futures- Article published in Ingenio Autumn 2012. Size: 169.2 kB.
Document Description: Pauline Curtis